Economy Trends from a Business Point of View (January 2023)

On February 13, 2023, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting ” (IER), within the project “Support of the Public Initiative “For Fair and Transparent Customs,” held an online event “Economy trends from the business point of view (January 2023)”.

The results of the Ninth monthly survey of enterprise managers, “Ukrainian business in wartime,” conducted in January 2023, were presented at the event.

Survey: Business continues to remain stable, but the recovery in production was inactive in January

Despite the consequences of the Russian missile terror impact, businesses remain stable. At the same time, the production recovery in January was inactive.

These are the results of our Ninth New Monthly Enterprises’ Survey for January 2023, which IER experts presented during the online event “Economy trends from a business point of view.”

As the survey showed, the majority of entrepreneurs – 82% – expect the end of the war.  The taxes and excise duties reduction (45%) is in second place, and the introduction of affordable loans and the simplification of legal requirements for business is in third place.

“It means that business is adapting to work in wartime. Such results were the outcome of decisions, for example, regarding the abolition of the 2% tax rate,” said Oksana Kuziakiv, executive director at the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting.

The problem of electricity, water, or heat supply outages has been at the top of the list of obstacles to doing business for three months in a row. The rise in prices for raw materials and supplies is in second place, and work hazard isin third place. 

“Only 3% of respondents mentioned the problem of blocking tax invoices. This again shows that this problem is significant, but for a certain group of businesses,” the expert explained.

The majority of enterprises — 89% — temporarily suspended work due to a power outage in December. At the same time, 6% of businesses manage to maintain all production processes and not stop work even during outages. Another 30% of enterprises suspended work for only 1-10% of working time, 30% – for 11-25% of working time, and 11% of enterprises did not work more than half of the time (51-100%).

Enterprises lost 23% of the total working time for the month due to power outages. The worst situation was recorded in the Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhya, and Khmelnytskyy regions, Yevhen Angel, a senior research fellow at the IER, explains.

To continue working, enterprises in January installed additional power sources (generators, batteries, etc.) (79%) and also changed their work schedule (57%).

“Large and medium enterprises are better equipped with power sources than micro and small enterprises. Enterprises that are provided with power sources had smaller temporary losses,” Yevhen Angel added.

The share of enterprises operating almost at full capacity (75%-99%) remained almost unchanged compared to the previous month — 43% of respondents.

Expectations for two years remain optimistic: a third plan to expand the activities of their enterprises, but uncertainty for such a distant period has increased. At the same time, the level of uncertainty in the six and three months continues to decrease.

“If the downward trend continues in the future at this pace, in 2-3 months, we will reach the pre-war level of uncertainty,” noted Oksana Kuziakiv.

In January, compared to December, the share of enterprises that planned to increase production in the next three-four months increased, and the percentage of enterprises that planned to reduce production decreased.

📌Presentation “Main economic trends and expectations in January 2023”

📌 Event record

thumbnail of Main economic trends in January 2023_#9

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