The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) conducted the ninth issue of the Monthly Enterprises Survey” Ukrainian business in wartime,” for January 2023. The project aims to rapidly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level.
As the survey results showed, business is adapting to work in conditions of Russian missile terror.
The enterprises’ plans for the next two years remain optimistic. At the same time, uncertainty has increased in the long-term horizon. Assessments of the current situation both at the country level and for enterprises have improved for two months in a row. Short-term production expectations have also improved. The level of uncertainty in the 6-month and 3-month horizons continues to decrease, and expectations for 6 months have improved for two months in a row.
In January 2023, the two main challenges for business remained unchanged: power outages and rising prices. The third place was shared by such problems as difficulties transporting raw materials or goods through the territory of Ukraine and work hazards.
In January, businesses remained resilient to Russian terrorist attacks, but production recovery was not active. In total, 47% of respondents worked at almost full, full, and above full production capacity in January (as well as in November and December).
The average time expenditure due to power outages was 23% of working hours in December. Businesses temporarily suspended operations due to power outages but have improved the provision of independent power sources.
The resumption of export activity improved slightly. The share of enterprises that stopped exporting after February 24, 2022, and were unable to resume it fell to a record low of 10%. Thus, a positive trend of the export activity recovery was recorded for the first time after four months of stagnation. Queues at the border, maritime blockades, and complex customs formalities remain among the sharpest export obstacles. Many exporters still cannot reorient themselves from the CIS markets and find new partners.