IER released the eleventh monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for March 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting” (IED) as part of the project “For Fair and Transparent Customs,” funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the eleventh monthly enterprise survey
- In March, the business activity at enterprises significantly improved, and the optimism of enterprise managers in the short- and medium-term horizons increased significantly.
- Assessments of the current situation in the country and at the enterprise have been improving for four months in a row. Expectations for six months have improved significantly.
- Six- and three-month uncertainty continues to decline, but longer-term uncertainty remains high and unchanged.
- The dynamics of changes in production indicators and expectations for the next three months have significantly improved. The situation at enterprises in March 2023 compared to March 2022 improved significantly.
- Plans for the next two years remain relatively positive.
- The “power outages” obstacle dropped to second place in the ranking of obstacles.
- On average, businesses lost only 6% of total working hours in February due to power outages.
- The sharpness of “unsafe to work” as a barrier to doing business continues to decline.
- Export activity has revived, but some exporters are still unable to resume sales abroad.
- There have been fewer positive assessments of economic policy.