The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 26-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for June 2024.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 26-th wave lasted from June 17 to June 28, 2024.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in June 2024 with May, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (June 2024), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 500+ enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
Main results of the 26-th monthly enterprise survey:
- Amid power outages, which have become a major obstacle to doing business and displaced insecurity from the top spot, production growth has slowed down, and near-term expectations have worsened, though still positive, with 6-month expectations remaining high.
- The Business Activity Recovery Index decreased significantly, as did the Industrial Confidence Indicator (continuing to form a downward trend).
- The uncertainty in the six-month horizon has slightly increased, while the uncertainty in the three-month perspective for production indicators does not change significantly.
- Uncertainty in the two-year horizon has not changed significantly after a significant decline last month.
- Expectations for the two-year perspective were unchanged after a significant deterioration last month. The production index remains positive, but the downward trend continues.
- Expectations for three-month production are still optimistic, but lower than a month ago.
- Expectations regarding the prices for raw materials and finished goods rose for the first time.
- The trend of reducing personnel is slowing down, while difficulties in finding employees with appropriate qualifications have decreased.
- “Unsafe to work” is in 2nd place, with an almost unchanged percentage value, while “power outages” is in 1st place, moving up from 4th.
- There were again more neutral assessments of the government’s economic policy.
