The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 42-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for October 2025.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 42-th wave lasted from October 22 -31, 2025. The enterprise managers compared the work results in October 2025 with September, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (October 2025), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 500+ enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
Main results of the 42-th monthly enterprise survey:
- Business attitudes in Ukraine remain fragile in October 2025, with short-term forecasts and business performance deteriorating despite a slight improvement in long-term expectations.
- Rising uncertainty, a slowing recovery, staff shortages, security concerns, and increased attacks on transport infrastructure continue to be key constraints to business activity.
- Long-term business expectations have slightly improved after last month’s decline, while uncertainty over the two-year horizon has been increasing for the third month in a row.
- Medium-term uncertainty has risen both for the business activity at enterprises and the overall economic environment.
- At the same time, six-month expectations continue to deteriorate.
- Year-on-year recovery rates continue to trend downward. Enterprise performance indicators (month-over-month) and short-term expectations are worsening.
- The leading obstacles for businesses remain labor shortages, security issues, and rising prices, with some changes in their percentage distribution.
- Against the backdrop of intensified shelling of railways and transport infrastructure, the share of enterprises reporting difficulties in organizing the transportation of goods across the country has increased.
The study was conducted by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
The main points from the report can be read at the links:
