The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the 45-th monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for January 2026.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
The field stage of the 45-th wave lasted from January 19 -31, 2025. The enterprise managers compared the work results in January 2026 with December 2025, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (January 2025), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 500+ enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
Main results of the 45–th monthly enterprise survey:
- In January 2026, business assessments indicate a decline in uncertainty over the medium term; however, current performance indicators and the rate of recovery remain under pressure from challenges related to the war.
- Long-term business expectations have not changed significantly, while uncertainty over a two-year horizon has decreased substantially.
- Medium-term uncertainty has declined both for the overall economic environment and for the business activity at enterprises. At the same time, expectations for the six-month horizon have deteriorated for the country’s overall economic environment.
- Year-on-year recovery rates have worsened again, with the indicator turning negative for the first time in a long period.
- Month-on-month enterprise performance indicators have deteriorated, while short-term expectations have improved.
- The leading obstacles for businesses remain labor shortages, security concerns, and power supply outages.
- Assessments of economic policy have not changed significantly and remain mostly neutral, although the share of negative assessments has increased.
- The most important developments that respondents say would improve business conditions are the end of the war, the protection and restoration of Ukraine’s energy system, and the reservation of workers.
The research was conducted by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) within the framework of the project ” Ukraine’s integration into the EU: a dialogue built on facts” with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation.
The main points from the report can be read at the links:
Almost 50% of Businesses Noted Electricity Supply Problems in January — IER Survey
Business Activity Recovery Index Turned Negative for the First Time Since 2023 — IER Survey
