The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) conducted the second issue of the Monthly Enterprises Survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for April-May 2022. The project aims to rapidly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level.
The survey results showed that in June, business expectations for production and employment in the short term remain optimistic, and the level of uncertainty in the short term has halved or decreased three times for all enterprise indicators, except exports.
The share of respondents who reported a decline in production decreased from 70.5% to 44.9%. However, in June 2022, compared to the pre-war period, 8% of enterprises ceased operations (10% in May).
Semi-annual business expectations improved significantly: the percentage of “optimists” increased from 38.7% to 46.1%, while the share of pessimists decreased from 35.9% to 28.8%. At the same time, the level of uncertainty remains high: 43.3% could not forecast the changes in the financial and economic situation, and 43.6% – on the general economic situation.
Businesses are actively working to resume export activities, but many companies are still unable to export. Thus, the share of enterprises that stopped exporting due to the war but revived it doubled from 9% to 20%. Also, 40% of exporters have not yet resumed sales abroad.
Logistics difficulties, fuel shortages, and rising prices remain among the main challenges for business. Entrepreneurs expect the end of the war, the de-occupation of territories, and the reduction of excise duties and taxes.
The survey is conducted using the Business Tendency Survey approach when the situation assessment is based on consolidated judgments and expectations of the key economic agents: entrepreneurs and business managers about the situation at their company.
The field phase of the first survey lasted from April 28 to May 7, 2022. Enterprises compared the situation in April 2022 and March 2022, or (where indicated) to the pre-war period (up to February 24, 2022). Respondents gave forecasts for the next one or two months of enterprises’ operation.
The publication was prepared within the project “For Fair and Transparent Customs”, funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation, and the ATLAS Network (USA). Its content is the responsibility of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting and does not necessarily represent the position of the European Union, the Renaissance Foundation, or the ATLAS Network.