IER released the twelfth monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for April 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting” (IED) as part of the project “For Fair and Transparent Customs,” funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting” (IED) as part of the project “For Fair and Transparent Customs,” funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements. The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the twelfth monthly enterprise survey
In April, enterprises showed their best results for the entire survey period and remained optimistic (albeit somewhat less than before) about the near future. The importance of “unsafe to work” as an obstacle to doing business has decreased. Assessments of the current situation in the country and the business activity at the enterprise have increased, and expectations, while remaining high, have become somewhat more restrained than a month ago. The dynamics of production indicators were the best for the entire survey period. Uncertainty over the six- and three-month horizons continues to decrease (excluding exports and employment). But the longer-term future remains unclear for business: uncertainty over the two-year horizon is high and increased slightly in April compared to May 2023. At the same time, the enterprises’ plans for the next two years remain cautiously positive, and short-term expectations, although reduced, remain very optimistic.
The publication was prepared as part of the project “For Fair and Transparent Customs”, funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation, and the ATLAS Network (USA). Its content is the responsibility of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting and does not necessarily represent the position of the European Union, the Renaissance Foundation, or the ATLAS Network.
