IER released the thirteenth monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for May 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting” (IER) as part of the project “For Fair and Transparent Customs,” funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements.
The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the thirteenth monthly enterprise survey
- Amid the military escalation, business optimism remains quite high, while the long term remains uncertain.
- Assessments of the current financial and economic situation at the enterprise have slightly deteriorated, while assessments of the general economic situation in the country and expectations for the future remained unchanged.
- Uncertainty in the 6- and 3-month perspective has been declining for several months in a row.
- The two-year plans remain vague for business: uncertainty remains high, and, also, the share of enterprises that do not plan changes for such a long term has increased.
- As missile attacks intensified, the importance of “unsafe operation” and “power outages” has again increased slightly for doing business.
- Export activity remains unchanged, which indicates a certain stagnation of export recovery.
- The main challenge for exporters remains logistical problems.
- Economic policy assessments in most cases are neutral and do not change.