IER released the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for June 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting” (IER) as part of the project “For Fair and Transparent Customs,” funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements. The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Fourteenth monthly enterprise survey:
- In the short- and medium-term horizon, business remains optimistic, although it refrains from clear forecasts for the distant future, as evidenced by the increase in long-term uncertainty.
- Expectations in the six-month horizon remain very optimistic.
- For the first time in several months, there is a slight increase in uncertainty in the short- and medium-term horizons.
- At the same time, the current situation is characterized as quite positive. The share of businesses operating near full and at full capacity is the highest since the beginning of the war.
- Managers have improved their assessments of the current business activity at the enterprise and the overall economic environment; the results of the enterprises compared to the previous month have improved, and the expectations for three months are very optimistic. But the “stagnation” of such optimism has been observed for the third month in a row.
- Issues of business security remain in the top 5 obstacles to business operations during wartime, and assessments of the government’s economic policy to support business have slightly deteriorated but still remain satisfactory.
For reference: The “field” stage of the survey took place from June 16 to June 30, 2023; telephone interviews were conducted with representatives of 513 enterprises of all sizes located in 21 out of 27 regions of Ukraine.