IER released the Sixteenth monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for August 2023.
The monthly survey of enterprise managers is conducted by the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting” (IER) as part of the project “For Fair and Transparent Customs,” funded by the European Union and co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation and the ATLAS Network (USA).
The need for comprehensive information on the economic situation is crucial for economic policy in wartime. The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting conducts a monthly enterprise survey using the Business Tendency Survey approach to quickly collect information on the current economic state at the enterprise level. The methodology is designed to assess the situation from the “base level”: the judgments and expectations of key economic agents such as entrepreneurs and business managers.
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one.
Respondents regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators. This entails the dynamics of output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months. This part of the survey applies the business tendency survey methodology, harmonized according to the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys (BCS) requirements. The special part of the monthly enterprise survey is devoted to the war’s impact on the production activity of enterprises and exports and the assessment of government policy on business support. The industry dimension in data analysis is used in the issue.
Main results of the Sixteenth monthly enterprise survey:
- Despite the high level of long-term uncertainty and increased short-term uncertainty, enterprise performance has improved, and expectations remain high and rising again.
- Enterprise results improved compared to previous months, and expectations for production, sales, and exports for three months are rising again.
- The share of enterprises operating at almost full and full capacity remains unchanged (57% in August versus 59% in July).
- “Unsafe to work” and “power outages” remain among the significant obstacles to work.
- The percentage of respondents who cannot decide on an answer has significantly increased in assessments of the government’s economic policy.
- “The end of the war” and “a good business climate” are the main expectations of businesses.
For reference: The “field” stage of the survey took place from August 15 to August 31, 2023; telephone interviews were conducted with representatives of 539 enterprises of all sizes located in 21 out of 27 regions of Ukraine.
