Economic trends from a business point of view (November 2023)

“If winter comes, can spring be far behind?” Main economic trends in November 2023 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES

On December 11, 2023, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event “Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (November 2023)” within the framework of the project “Support to the Public Initiative “For Fair and Transparent Customs”.

During the event, the results of the 19-th monthly survey of business executives “Ukrainian Business during the war”, which was conducted in November 2023, were presented.

The field stage of the 19-th wave lasted from November 17 to November 30, 2023. In November, 539 companies were surveyed.

The enterprise managers compared the work results in November 2023 with October 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (November 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).

Key message: The rate of economic recovery has once again accelerated amidst the cessation of the downward trend in short-term optimism and lowering uncertainty.

Recovery’s returns

The share of enterprises operating at full capacity has increased (13% vs 10% in October);

BARI (Business Activity Recovery Index) is high comparing to the previous year and increase in 2 times;

Industrial Confidence Indicator has increased.

Uncertainty has decreased

Uncertainty in the 6-month lowered a bit for business activity at the enterprise;

Uncertainty in the 3-month perspective significantly decreased;

Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective slightly decreased although remains high.

Past performance and expectations

6-month expectations regarding enterprises’ business activity and the overall economic environment has deteriorated;

Employment indicators suggested a seasonal deceleration while the labor market experienced a shortage of unskilled workers;

Production performance vs previous months and 3-months expectations remained optimistic;

Export performance and expectations continue to display positivity.

Impediments, economic policy

In November, the impediment “dangerous of work” occupied the 2^nd position on the list of obstacles after being at 2^nd in October;

Interruptions in electricity remain at the 6^th position on the List of impediments to doing business already several month in a row;

Assessments on the government’s economic policy have deteriorated;

Interruptions in electricity remain at the 6^th position on the List of impediments to doing business already several month in a row.

NEW! Our respondents` opinion: the key goal of government policy should be the mobilization of recourse for victory (73%).

✅ More survey results in the presentation.

✅ Video presentation: http://surl.li/ogjpp

The event was held under the project “Support to the Public Initiative” For Fair and Transparent Customs” The project is implemented by the NGO “Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting” with the financial support of the European Union, the Renaissance Foundation and the Atlas Network