The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) has released the Seventeenth monthly enterprise survey “Ukrainian business in wartime” for September 2023.
The goal of the project is to quickly collect information on the current state of the economy at the enterprise level.
This survey uses a panel sample that includes 534 enterprises located in 21 of 27 regions of Ukraine, including Vinnytsya, Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zakarpattya, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyy, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions and the Kyiv city.
The field stage of the 17-th wave lasted from September 18 to September 29, 2023. The enterprise managers compared the work results in September 2023 with August 2023, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (September 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
The monthly survey consists of two parts: the regular one and the special one. Respondents will regularly answer questions on the changes in key activity indicators and short-term forecasts for future changes in the same indicators: output (production), sales, exports, debt, new orders, employment, etc. We will also focus on estimates and expectations of the changes in the business climate and business activity at the enterprise in the next six months.
The special part of the Monthly survey provides information on specific topics. A special part examines the enterprises’ problems, the war’s impact on production volumes, export activity, basic business needs, and the assessment of government policy.
Main results of the Seventeenth monthly enterprise survey:
- Business expectations in the short term remain high, although the production recovery rate has slowed somewhat (as evidenced by a number of indicators).
- Risks related to war are becoming a significant factor in the business environment: for the first time during the survey, the risk related to war took second place in the rating of obstacles.
- Business relies on itself and needs a friendlier regulatory policy.
- Uncertainty in the long-term horizon is high and unchanged, while uncertainty in the short-term and semi-annual horizons is decreasing.
- Half-yearly expectations regarding the business activity and the overall economic environment remain high and positive.
- Compared to the previous month, production indicators slightly improved, while three-month expectations decreased slightly.
- Businesses still experience difficulties in finding skilled workers and difficulties in finding unskilled workers are gradually decreasing.