“Frozen, but alive…optimism’23”Main economic trends inDecember 2023 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On January 15, 2024 the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event “Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (December 2023)” within the framework of the project “Support to the Public Initiative “For Fair and Transparent Customs”.
During the event, the results of the 20-th monthly survey of business executives “Ukrainian Business during the war”, which was conducted in December 2023, were presented.
The field stage of the 20-th wave lasted from December 13 to December 31, 2023. In November, 535 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in December 2023 with November, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (December 2023), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
The security situation has deteriorated: % of respondents who chose “work in current conditions is dangerous” among impediments to production increased from 38% to 53% (!) and moved to the 1st place in the list of impediments.
Key massages: Despite the deteriorating security situation and high uncertainty that impact the deterioration of long-term plans, businesses are showing resilience by concentrating on finding solutions for the present and the immediate future.
Main result 1. “Frozen” recovery
BARI (Business Activity Recovery Index) remains high, but no changes comparing to the previous month.
The share of enterprises operating at total capacity remained without significant changes (12% vs 13% in November).
Industrial Confidence Indicator is without significant changes.
Main result 2. Uncertainty is almost unchanged
Uncertainty in the 6-month perspective remained without significant changes both for business activity at the enterprise and overall economic environment.
Uncertainty in the 3-month also remained without significant changes after a sharp decrease in November.
Uncertainty in the 2-year perspective remained high and without changed.
Main result 3. Do long long- and medium expectations tend to go down?
In December, for the first time in recent months, the business expectations for the next two years have deteriorated, but the “optimists” still exceed the “pessimists”.
6-month expectations regarding enterprises’ business activity and the overall economic environment have no change compared to November, but the annual trend decreased.
Main result 4. Main result 4: Past performance and expectations
Production performance in December vs November improved.
3 months perspective production expectations are positive but do not grow.
Employment indicators keep trending on a seasonal deceleration while the labor market experienced a shortage of unskilled workers.
Export results improved, expectations remained without significant changes.
Main result 5. Main results 5: Impediments, economic policy
In December, the list of impediments significantly changed; security issues and “lack of personnel” took the 1st and 2nd places, shifting “rise in price” on the 3rd place.
% of respondents who identified “working in current conditions is dangerous” as an impediment to production has risen significantly, from 38% to 50%, and it now maintains its position as the top-ranked impediment.
Negative assessments of the government’s economic policy have decreased, while neutral assessments have increased.
✅ More survey results in the presentation.
✅ Video presentation: http://surl.li/pigof
The event was held under the project “Support to the Public Initiative” For Fair and Transparent Customs” The project is implemented by the NGO “Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting” with the financial support of the European Union, the Renaissance Foundation and the Atlas Network
